At first glance, you could guess this was another 4 year old’s high priced abstract art canvas.
(Tangent: a great indie documentary recommendation but more on this later).
Zoom back out and it’s Andrea Bargnani’s monochrome season in a colourful nutshell of a graph.
I’ve attempted to remove Sam/minutes played from the equation (for those quick to point the finger at Mitchell alone). The graph reflects Bargnani’s productivity per minute played, in 3 telling categories: Points, Rebounds and Personal Fouls.
Focus on the straight lines and what the trends show, is that while his minutes have averaged out (a straight trend line) over the season, his points, rebounds and fouls have all still trended downward. The last stat would be encouraging, if only the other two didn’t serve as an indicator of an overall decline in productivity and possibly effort.
While conditioning can be the usual suspect for sophomoric slumps, there is more to Andrea’s story. The reality, one apparent by his body language and without multi-variable linear functions, is that his confidence has had a serious downward trendline itself. The reasons, if one were a guesser:
- The new role - adjusting to the NBA size/speed.
- The new role, part dua. Going from prodigious and coveted 16 year old with Lebron-like attention in Italy (inarguably their best ever talent) to a sixth or seventh scoring option on a .500 team is as big an adjustment - a drastic ego knock.
- Defenses have adjusted to his skillset much faster than he’s been able to add tricks to his offensive repertoire.
- An uninspired, inconsistent effort. Divvy up the blame between himself, Sam, and his fluctuating role.
- Aforementioned sophomore slump + Darko Milicic’ish pressure of playing Sam Bowie to Brandon Roy. (3 eras, you like?)
Occasional flashes of Bargnani’s natural prowess remain promising, with the hopeful Dirk Nowitzki upside still not quite a mirage. A repeat reprisal in the playoffs would go a long way in helping regain that uptick in confidence, a must-have starting point for a 3rd season breakout.
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As I mentioned earlier, the insightful documentary by Amir Bar-Lev, “My Kid could Paint That” portrays the cynicism of the art world and its sometimes loose definition — mirroring the leeriness around Raptor’s base camp these days. There is an undeniable ambiguity about the direction of the team, when late-season gelling is the desirable course they would obviously prefer .
A compelling undercurrent throughout the documentary is the cutthroat pervasiveness of the media and its effect on unravelling an adorable 4 year old painting prodigy’s fairytale story.
The irony in this parallel is that the relatively young Raptors franchise, also a multi-million dollar artistic outfit, have generally flown under ther radar of otherwise ravenous Toronto media vultures. Some would contend otherwise, but contrast acerbic Maple Leaf’s scribe Damien Cox with even the most scathing Raptors note-taker; and he’s easily the Bill O’ Reilly to their softball lobbing, Larry King.
This likely suits the less seasoned franchise and fanbase well, but the muted grayscale perspective of the homer media is just not quite as colourful to follow.
April 7th, 2008 at 11:45 am
haha, I actually saw that documentary. Interesting comparison.
I agree that Bargnani is not thriving in this system. The stats presented show a trend supporting this. But AB strikes me as a guy who almost needs some adversity to be able to develop an edge.
I just hope that the edge gets developed soon….
April 7th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Interesting.
Did turnovers, comedic fakes, and blank stares not fit on the graph?
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Andrea-Bargnani-154/
I’m not ready to write him off just yet but it’s scary how accurate the below pre-draft projection from draftexpress is of Andrea and his progression.
“Comments: Bargnani is potentially a great player, but joining the NBA now very likely means a few years without significant playing time. He has a long way to go before finding a position and being a complete forward instead of a tweener, and until then he’ll face harsh criticism and pressure that could kill his confidence and development. The higher he’s going to be picked, the worse it will end up being.
The recent struggles of another Benetton top pick, Nikoloz Tskitishvili (#5 in 2002, in front of current allstar Amare Stoudemire), aren’t going to make scouts more confident. Most of the comments you read about Andrea, both positive and negative, would have easily been applied to Skita 3 years ago. While Tskitishvili’s career is far from done, it’s not even a question anymore whether Denver’s top pick was completely wasted, and people often lose their jobs for decisions like that.
The biggest question mark about a player like Andrea, and in important factor in deciding how likely he is to accomplish his vast potential, is his character. While there have been only positive comments about him during the past year by his coach, teammates and the organization, nobody can foresee how a young player will react to the rigors and the pressure of a season spent on a NBA bench, that will probably be the difference between a successful career or years of frustration.
Bargnani is a very talented player; otherwise he wouldn’t be considered a likely lottery pick. But make no mistake: he’s a project, a project that won’t pan out that early. He’s in a very risky position, as he needs to find the right team and the right coach, a coach who is committed to his development.
While his talent is enough to earn quality minutes on a top European team, it’s hard to imagine him on the court in the NBA right now if it’s not in garbage time situations.
Most people in Italy believe that the best route for him to reach his immense potential is to wait to become an impact player in Europe first and then cross the ocean. But keep in mind that a lottery selection will make him at least fifty times his current salary, and it’s hard for anyone to pass on such a chance.
To understand why we say the guy is far from contributing in the NBA, just look at his game-by-game stats this year in the links section. It doesn’t say much about his talent, but it shows that Andrea is guy that has still a lot to prove and a long way to go.”
April 7th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Andrea Bargnani has the talent to be a match up nightmare. The Colangelo draft history is so impressive it’s downright insane the types of players he’s picked up in the end of the lottery and towards even the end of the first round. Names such as Stoudamire, Marion, Nash, Finley and Barbosa come to mind. This is a guy who simply does not make mistakes in the draft. Are we to believe he finally made one when given the first overall pick? You can see Andrea has quickness to blow by practically any center in the game, that he has the creativity to create his own offense and is one of 4-5 Raptors who can actually do so, and that he has the ability to be very capable in the high post area as a passer (think Vlade Divac). But instead here is what Andrea Bargnani gets to do on offense. It really is quite simple. It has become unbearable to watch. He plays at the top of the damn 3-point arc, he picks the point guard and instead of rolling to the bloody basket, (which he does do to his credit 3-5% of the time) he just gets open for a 3-pointer, which to the point guard’s credit he gets about 10-16% of the time. Now… at this point he will either pass, shoot, or drive. That’s right. A 7′1 250 pounder is getting all of his points on offense starting at the top of the arc. How hard could one guy possibly have it? Is there no way someone could set a bloody pick for him to come off of so that he could get a shot at the top of the free throw line? He’s actually a brilliant mid range shooter coming off screens on the catch and shoot because he’s forced to get his legs into it. Are we to understand that he can’t get any baskets with some pick from Bosh which opens him up to the 2-3 foot lay ups that Rasho has been feeding off of for a month now?
Andrea Bargnani has never had a play drawn up for him. Jose Calderon has never had a play drawn up for him. Jason Kapono has never had a play drawn up for him in the end of the game where we are down by 3. He is the “decoy” if Sam remembers he’s even on the team. Who has had plays drawn for them? Chris Bosh for 3… 2 times this season to close out a game. TJ Ford contested fade aways? Worse… Jamario Moon shooting jumpers to end the games? There’s a certain quality you have to possess to really get respect from Mitchell. You have to be a loud personality, or you have to be a scrappy under dog. In other words, you have to BE SAM MITCHELL to get respect from Sam Mitchell. It hardly seems the scrappy American who struggled to get his first deal is going to find himself in a big first overall pick who in his opinion plays with no grit or toughness.
Andrea as Maurizio once put it does not show emotion, but is very emotional. People say these horrible things today but around the draft there were huge rumors that the Bulls wanted the young Italian every bit as much as the Raptors did. It hardly seems fair that so many have given up so soon on the kid. He has so much promise, and so much potential. His quickness, passing, and size are so incredible that under the right coach this is a guy who could give anyone 18/5/4 right now if he could only get a few easy baskets a game coupled with some consistent minutes. I would argue that he looked like the best player on this team during the preseason and prior to his benching. He was rebounding well per minute, (in his 24-28 mins a night) he was one of the very best scorers on the team, and the Smitch decided he liked his 2-8 record with Andrea not playing as much.
Rasho is a great player. He was once compared to Tim Duncan by the lead assistant in San Antonio in that he had similar talents and operated on the same part of the floor as Timmy (in some strange way of explaining why he was traded) and he does work better with Bosh as he is right now. But he isn’t 22. He isn’t your first overall pick. You may have 8 million and trade value invested in him but you certainly don’t have a potential dynasty which rests on the very condition that he can turn into one of the premier big men in the league. By the time BOSH turns into the player he needs to and Colangelo brings in who he needs as a final piece, Rasho will be 34, while Andrea will be under 25, and unless something changes soon, the new poster-child for why young european bigmen should not be drafted high in the draft. Or perhaps… he will be the new posterchild for just how bad guys like Sam Mitchell and Larry Brown are at developing young talent, and just how efficiently they end the careers of players they can’t link with on some sacred level. I think Anthony Parker is a good example of Brown, as well as Larry Hughes, and I feel Graham and Alston may be good examples of Mitchell’s lack of abilities at developing talented young players.
Perhaps more so, it may be the sad fact that Bosh and Bargnani may eventually join the list of players who Mitchell ruined. Bosh was by all accounts a guy with a ton of talent. Last year in the playoffs, he stated that he had seen few situations in his career where he was allowed to operate with the ball in the end of games. It made me think… god damn it we’ve been rebuilding for half a decade who has been touching the ball? The names… did not surprise me. Mike James and Jalen Rose… ahh… the scrappy underdog looking for a contract and the loud alpha male who couldn’t guard a pylon with a machine gun. Not to mention, they were both not part of future plans. Would it have killed “Sam’s” career to have given Bosh a few of those shots, so he wouldn’t have been shut down by Moore and Collins in the playoffs? Would it make sense to get Andrea some touches now that you have zero chance at winning a championship? No… it’s time for TJ to shine, the PG who is secretly on the block, and Delfino’s time, the Free agent chucker who hears dollar signs with every made three. Yet the longest of deals on the Raptors, also the greatest percentage 3-point shooter sits on the bench, unused, in an offense which relies almost exclusively on outside shooting. The night Jamario Moon takes 6 three pointers, and still plays is the night you declare Sam Mitchell cannot coach. That night has happened… The verdict is in. If Mitchell had not been preasured to play Bargnani and Garbajosa last season he would have been fired and the Raptors would have gone on to win 27 games again. Instead his hand was forced into playing 3 players he didn’t really like at first and suddenly Peterson found his ass on the bench, Rasho was playing 14 minutes a night, and 2 of the top 5 contributers were guys Mitchell had already put in his dog house before the season had even started. God damn you Sam… to hell
April 7th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
What can I say that Messiah hasn’t already said? I totally agree with you buddy.
Andrea is still a prospect and is supposedly key to the franchise’s future, but do you see Sam acting accordingly?
Andrea’s playtime this year has been RIDICULOUS. One day he’d play 30 minutes, the next one he’d be down to 16 with no apparent reason. He has a 16pts 1st qtr and then sits thrhough almost all the rest of the game. Once he scores 25+, the game after he is the 8th man in the rotation. All this would mine the confidence of much more established players than him.
What does he have to do to stay in the game? It seems Sam gives hime 5-10 minutes and then, if he is not shooting the lights out or if the team is losing, he benches him. So, Andrea gets in the field knowing he has to:
1) defend hard, otherwise he will be benched - unlike most of his team mates who suck at D as much as him but never seem to pay for that;
2) take rebounds, even if the only scheme Sam has for him is “ball behind the arc and then shoot or drive to the basket”, otherwise he will be benched;
3) try not to miss too many shots, oherwise he will be benched.
I challenge YOU to get on the floor and put up some stats in a situation like this.
The kid has his own responsabilities of course, but a player can’t develop if he doesn’t have playtime and if he doesn’t feel trusted by his coach. It’s not like he is this crappy player who can’t stay on the floor, he has repeatedly shown that his offensive talent is enormous.
It’s just a matter of truly betting on him. Or, if you don’t believe in him anymore, trade him out for someone valuable. It’s this being stuck in the middle, as always happens with Sam, that gets us nowhere. It’s not good for the team, it ain’t good for the kid either.
April 7th, 2008 at 7:50 pm
NICE POSTS
YOU SHOULD MAIL COPY TO BRYAN, SAM AND DOUG SMITH
April 9th, 2008 at 7:40 pm
Very interesting analisys, I have just a note about that: “inarguably their best ever talent”. No, the best was and is Dino Meneghin (ask something Bob McAdoo to know more about this player) and Bargnani is very very far from him. Not only presently, but also about potential.
April 27th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Hi to everyone, I write from Italy. I would like to say something about Bargnani. Potentially I think he’s a very good player, he’s 7.1 and he has got a great shoot range, he’s faster than the other PF and C in the league, he got a very good ball handling. I think Andrea’s got two very big problems… The first one is Sam Mitchell, how can he be a NBA coach? So one game Bargnani plays 35 minutes, the next game 13, what he’s fucxxx doing? The second problem is the duo Bosh - Ford. When they ‘re toghether on the floor they play alone, they take over the 50% of shoots of the team? Why ? Do you think that T.J Ford is a good playmaker? I think is much better Calderon, because he plays for the team and not for himself. The other question is: can Andrea and Bosh play toghether? I don’t think. I don’t like so much Chris, I think he’s a loser and most of time he scores point when the game is end, but he’s the only player that Sam Mitchell leaves on the floor in every moment of the game. I hope next year will arrive a new coach that will give Andrea more chances to play and shows his big talent.
The best italian player is surely Danilo Gallinari, he’s 20 years old and plays for the Olimpia Milano.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Danilo-Gallinari-535/
He will surely a star in NBA, believe in me.
Sorry for my bad english, I hope in a miracle in Game 5 against Orlando… And I hope Andrea will play as well as he can.
Bye to everyone!
May 1st, 2008 at 10:20 am
In my opinion Bargs just needs faith by the staff and he needs a little rest. I’m optimist for his next season. Sorry for my bad English ‘cos I’m Italian.