In the now-tired TJ Ford vs Jose Calderon debate; the engimatic duel for the numero uno Raptors PG slot, the party-line from pro-TJ Ford backers:
“He has a higher upside and when on his game, can take us as far we would like to go.”
The facts as they stand, tell us differently. At this point of his career, encouraging stretches that tantalize may come and go, but it is highly unlikely that he will ever have a sustained period of great play. Consider the following…
Mentally - the Napoloeon complex
For ardent followers of the team, beyond the box score and glossy SportsCenter clips, it’s wont be news that there are glaring errors in Ford’s mental approach to the game. What might have slipped under the radar on some teams, though, is magnified in contrast by the stellar Nash’esque play of his backcourt mate, Jose Calderon.
With Ford, as much as the results can be lauded, much more insight is revealed in the ‘how’. His recent injury, Calderon’s seizing of the mantle and his new role as the ’second banana’ have seen Ford notably sulking, even in stretches where the team has played well. His on-court disconnect with his teammates can be regarded as a byproduct of the style he employs; a frustration which recently boiled over in a 5-minute spurt in Utah where he was ejected in the 4th quarter.
As a point guard, a method to the madness goes a long way towards longevity within the team unit. At times, TJ’s on court decisions almost seem pre-determined, rather than fluid or continuous within the offense - 5 passes in a row, 5 shots in a row - regardless of the defense offered up to him. It’s all very Arenas-like, (sans the scoring abillity) and is far from a compliment, for a budding team leader. Notwithstanding the dropoff in talent surrounding him on the second unit, Ford’s shooting percentage drops from 48.2% to 41.2% when he’s not a starter.
There does remain the possibility that he matures into a more stable player but there’s a much stronger chance he goes the way of Kenny Anderson: a bright upstart, almost too talented and ego-driven to embrace the selfless traits asked of the most powerful position in the game.
Size - longing longevity
Ford’s smallish status — he’s listed generously at 6′0″ — is not a complimentary trait to his take-on-all-challengers style, given his injury history. It is not far fetched to surmise that one more serious injury could force an early retirement.
In addition, tactically running the point in a pinballish me-first manner, can breed an unhealthy inconsistency. Penetration has never been a problem for Ford, him of Pegasus like quickness, but recently it’s been his undoing; defenders unable to keep up with his first step, now passively tempt TJ to over-penetrate and attempt ill-advised prayers over forwards, who clear him by at least a foot. (Ford has shot a dismal 38% over the past two months. By contrast, the Spurs’ Tony Parker averages a 50% FG percentage).
A Late Bloomer?
From an evolutionary standpoint, its the widely held belief that the point guard position has the slowest learning curve in the NBA. Despite examples like late bloomer PG’s like Nash, Billups or Cassell, who went from average to superstar or at least servicable, there is still a chasm of imagination required to envision TJ emulating their footsteps.
Ford’s lack of instinctual chemistry with teammates or consistent command of the game, probably pits his projected ceiling at a smaller, more injury-prone Stephon Marbury.
Sam’s Influence
Ford’s success is inexorably linked to coach Sam Mitchell’s. While its true that there hasn’t been a coach able to see eye-to-eye with Ford, Mitchell has undoubtedly been guilty of impeding Ford’s ascendancy to any semblance of point guard maturity. Whether the direction comes from above or not, Sam’s tacit allowance of TJ’s run-amok style has exacerbated Ford’s problems, when tough love and timely reins would have done much more in his development as a point guard.
If, as the adage goes, the point-guard is truly an extension of the coach on the floor, a double-edged sword presents itself. On the one hand, TJ is executing a flawed game-plan, ill devised to succeeding with the makeup of this team. On the other, he’s tuned out the plan, and subsequently, the coaching staff.
At Ford’s current form, neither school of thought shines a complimentary light on Mitchell.
The (likely) Verdict
With his recent assertions that they would do what it takes to sign Calderon, it’s apparent that Raptors’ GM Bryan Colangelo does recognize the future of the Raptors at the point guard position. A commitment which would undoubtedly reveal the acceptance of what the team has, and doesn’t have, in Ford.
Ford is capable of drastic swings and jaw-dropping hot streaks in any given game; the one facet he doesn’t lack is talent. Both his injury and the timing of Jose Calderon’s pre-all-star surge, which even commanded national attention south of the border, complicate the issue further.
From Colangelo’s perspective, TJ’s trade value isn’t as shot as many would think, provided he strings together a healthy month or two; talented young players are always appealing as reclamation projects in the NBA. Eg: Sebastian Telfair was seen as a desirable piece of the puzzle in acquiring Garnett. For the Raptors, the icing would be a nationally televised (in the US) stelllar playoff performance by TJ; the short-term showing which would see his value rise from the ashes.
The end of the TJ-Ford era could be near. Despite the Utah tantrum, a one-time anomaly, the underlying issues that boiled over may prove to be the watershed indication that he isn’t the optimal choice for the Toronto Raptors.
March 19th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
good post….i agree
That Utah display was it for me. That was ridiculous. The two minutes leading up to his ejection were the most selfish display that I’ve seen since Mike James.
March 20th, 2008 at 10:50 am
[…] - Fire Sam Mitchell […]
April 6th, 2008 at 2:11 am
Okay, Jose is great, I love him. However he has no killer instinct. This hating on TJ needs to stop and Raptor fans have to start appreciating what we have. Why do Toronto sports fans always do this.
April 6th, 2008 at 9:04 am
bob:
I thought the case was presented with enough depth to qualify being more than just an irrational ‘hate’.
Agree with the killer instinct comment to a degree, but I think Jose would/could develop that.
April 6th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
I agree with the analysis.
The way I see the whole thing is, the board decided to showcase TJ, thus letting him play notwithstanding his awful, from a team point of view, performances of late.
Either this, or they’re all gone mad. Having one of the hottest PGs in the league in Jose and taking minutes off of him to a guy who makes disasters everytime he is on the floor doesn’t make any other possible sense.
As to Jose’s lack of killer instinct, I don’t agree. He lets the game flow from minute 1 to minute 48. He always makes the best decision, being it a shot for himself or a pass. He is killer all the time. TJ, on the other hand, has showed a suicidal instinct. I can’t even remember all the times he had a turnover in the 4th qt, when the opponent’s D gets tough, because he kept penetrating over and over again.
April 6th, 2008 at 10:35 pm
You suck, go watch soccer.
April 7th, 2008 at 5:42 am
ahahah nice reply. Now that’s some depth of thought. What are you, 12yo?
April 12th, 2008 at 7:54 pm
Jose have no killer instict?? XD
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Tommy shut up and go watch hockey(I mean boxing on ice).
April 13th, 2008 at 9:38 pm
Great analysis. Jose Calderone is a champion. Unselfish, talented, and dedicated. Nuff said.
In terms of TJ, I think the analysis is spot on. In my opinion, the Raps are a fundamental, dish around the perimeter basketball team. TJ Ford penetrates the paint, and instead of finding an open man, he has two or three defenders on him that create a wall in every direction. Basically, most of the time TJ drives the basket, he creates his own check mate. Turnover turnover turnover. Ever notice when Jose goes in for a lay-up? It happens most when he has the speed around the perimeter and beats the defender on the baseline. I’ve said it elsewhere, TJ Ford has shooters tourrettes syndrome. It’s like there’s a click in his head at any given time telling him to shoot. I can’t stand watching him play basketball. If he were on a different team that had a few slashers bailing him out of trouble in the key, then I would love TJ. But this is the Toronto Raptors and he doesn’t fit. We either trade TJ or the rest of the team. Also, his attitude has been poor. For example, (sorry I can’t recall the exact game), but it’s the fourth quarter, someone steals the ball from TJ, and runs up for a layup. Instead of pursuing the opponent, TJ throws his arms up to the refs looking for a call. Complain about the play afterwards… In the meantime, be a pro and play some D!! Anyhow, I’m not a negative fan at all, but when Colangelo makes a move to get rid of Ford in the offseason, I am going to be pleased.
April 13th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
Looking for something Mr. Admin,
I would love to know the stat when TJ scores 20 points or more, and the Raps actually win the game… Do you know it? And my example in the last post was the recent loss against the Bobcats.
April 14th, 2008 at 8:21 pm
Nakamura, does fighting in hockey offend you? Fag
April 15th, 2008 at 12:39 am
I’ve been dying to know this stat and I took it upon myself to figure this out. Here’s all of the games this season when TJ scores more than 20 points.
LOSS - April 2 - Atlanta Hawks (120-127) TJ Scores 23 Points.
LOSS - March 12 - Golden State Warriors (106-117) TJ Scores 23 Points
LOSS - March 11 - L.A. Lakers (108-117) TJ Scores 28 Points
LOSS - March 4 - Orlando (87-102) TJ Scores 20 Points
WIN - December 11 - Atlanta Hawks (100 - 88) TJ Scores 26 Points
LOSS - December 5 - Pheonix Suns (123-136) TJ Scores 27 Points
LOSS - November 18 - Golden State Warriors (100-106) TJ Scores 29 Points
LOSS - November 4 - Boston Celtics (95-98) TJ Scores 32 Points
7 out of 8 of these games are losses. Do the Raps do well when TJ does well??? No, not at all. Our PG shouldn’t be getting 32 points a game when we have the best talent in the league in shooting (Kapono, Parker). Anyhow, I want TJ gone. That’s my point.
April 15th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Good stats.
A TJ supporter would say that his increase in points is in reaction to a team that isn’t rotating, playing with intensity, or shooting well that night. They would also say that it’s the only way to react to a happless effort. I know, I was one.
But a Jose supporter/Sam hater would say that it’s obviously not working, so just as we had a reaction to one problem, we should be just as quick to find a reaction to this one.
The solution is defense and more penetration/drawing fouls.
But at the VERY LEAST, if you insist on living/dying by the jump shot, you better have a strong defense as a safety net.
Fire Sam and trade TJ. Just do it.
April 15th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
yes, great research.
It cements what most already know about TJ, evident by his body language and me-first approach to playing PG…if only, his mind was right…
[adds it to the if-only folder, already clogged with vince, tmac, camby, billups…]
April 30th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
All I know is that in the last two elimination games the Raptors have played, Jose was on the floor driving the plane into the ground whether that be a ridiculous turnover to Jefferson last year, or throwing ice on the offence in the fourth quarter a couple nights ago.
But hey, he delivers a mean bottle of Gatorade!
May 1st, 2008 at 2:29 am
This is an excellent analysis. Something you won’t see too often in the homer/biased swirsky/rautins/smith dominated Toronto media (though Bruce Arthur did have a great article about TJ in last weeks National Post). One point that must also be elaborated on is TJ’s inability to play defense. Game one, when the Magic whet on their opening tear, sizzling from the floor in the 1st quarter, it was because they were hitting wide open jump shots (give any NBA player under 6′10 wide open j’s and they’ll hit them 7 times out of 10, unless their name is Jamario). Those jumpshots were created by TJ leaving his man to help on Howard, even though his help was almost always ineffective, cause he’s too small to help on Howard. This was a constant occurrence throughout the series. Not to mention the fact thta he was badly outplayed by Jameer Nelson the entire series. TJ is an undersized, shoot-first point guard, who brings a vince-like losing aura to this team. We should’ve moved him to the Knicks before Isiah got fired (he would’ve loved another shoot first point guard).
But hey, this isn’t all TJ’s fault. Mitchell is the moron who gives him valuable minutes
May 30th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
Well tempered post. My face cringes when I see TJ on the floor.
It’s funny now after watching play offs to watch a Raptors game. There’s no defence what so ever, and it’s not just Tj, though he’s utterly useless.